My guesses for the Town election
Wednesday, March 29th, 2006I’m surprised at how little discussion about the upcoming election (now only three days away) there has been. So I’m going to throw my SWAGs out there for people to dissect.
I may know my stuff on how TM works, but rest assured that I have zero insider knowledge about the campaigns. This is all gut feelings and guesses, so I disclaim responsibility for what happens if you rely on it :-)
Anyways…
SchoolComm:
I think Thielman will easily be the ticket-topper. He’s an incumbent, he’s the chair (which makes him even more visible), and to the extent you can ascribe any meaning to “I’m voting for Foo” letters, many of them say “I’m voting for Thielman and XXXX”. I haven’t seen any saying “I’m voting for Candelas and Sheffler”.
I think the race for the other seat will be tight, but think Sheffler will take it. She’s an incumbent and (I believe) this is the first time Candelas has run for anything in town.
Selectmen:
I think this one is going to go to the wire and no one is safe, though I think Hurd is the least at risk of the three. It’s true that the Establishment is all about Hurd and Rowe, so that’ll definitely help them. But it could hurt them, too, especially among those dissatisfied with the tax load, and Doherty’s very clear on his feelings there.
But I’m not being not paid to not name names :-), so I’ll say that Hurd will (narrowly) finish first. Inbumbency will help in this one. I think the endorsement of virtually all the town insiders will (barely) push Rowe over the top for the other seat, but I would not at all be surprised to see Doherty take it. I think turnout will be key, with higher turnout favoring Doherty.
Alcohol:
I realize these questions got on the ballot very late, but I’m still amazed at how little discussion there’s been of them, especially of the packie questions.
I think the question to expand the number of all-alchol restaurant liquor licenses will pass. I think the beer&wine store question will pass. But I think the all-alcohol store question will fail.
Fire away in the comments!